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TdF Game 2004: Final Remarks

Lance Armstrong (USA) has won his sixth consecutive Tour de France. This makes Armstrong the most successful cyclist in the Tour de France. Still there is a lot of discussion about whether this victory has made him the most successful cyclist of all times. Armstrong is a great champion but there are many people who argue that the sixth Tour de France victory does not make him a better cyclist than the five-time winners Anquetil, Merckx, Hinault and Indurain. Well, different times are always difficult to compare. Perhaps it is better to leave the decision about who is the best all-time cyclist to future historians.

Dropouts

This year 42 of the 189 cyclists that have started in the race, have failed to reach Paris. This number of dropouts is about what could have been expected, when compared with the previous five years (average 45). In the previous ten years that the game was running on average 58 cyclists left the race. The maximum number of dropouts was 93 in 1998 and the minimum 36 in 2002.

The participant teams have suffered a lot from the dropouts mainly because they included some popular cyclists. Alessandro Petacchi (third most popular cyclist in the game), Tyler Hamilton (fourth), Iban Mayo (seventh) and Roberto Heras (tenth) were included in many participant teams but failed to reach Paris. As a consequence of this there was no participant that managed to have a complete team at the end of the game. The last time that this happened was in 2000 when the largest game team finishing the game contained 13 riders.

In 2004, seven participants managed to finish the game with a team of fourteen riders: stage winner Chris Troof (USA), John Mckenzie (UK/Scotland), Mihret Ab (Eritrea), Rene Mieremet (The Netherlands), Severine Chaumette (France), Stacy Chase (USA) and Walt & Milda (USA). Sixteen others limited their losses to two riders and 81 teams finished with 12 cyclists. The team of Jeff Bull (USA) has suffered most from riders leaving the race: he lost nine of them. The smallest team to finish the game was that of Hans Dekker (The Netherlands): he started the game with five cyclists and finished with three.

The winner of this edition of the game, Arthur Denneman (The Netherlands) has lost two members of his team during the race. The team of our artificial participant Jan Modaal lost six cyclists, the worst result since 2000 (6) but not as bad as in 1998 when the average team lost 10 cyclists.

Popular cyclists

At the second rest day, we have looked at the performance of 15 country teams. These teams have been constructed in the same way as that of our artificial participant Jan Modaal, which is composed from the list of the most popular cyclists in the game. Each of the country teams contains the favorite cyclists of the participants of that country. Teams have only been compiled for countries that supplied ten or more participants. Here are the final scores of the teams in this edition of the game:

 Plc  Per Pnt Name
 42.  96% 613 Team Germany
 88.  92% 588 Team Sweden
145.  87% 569 Team The Netherlands
194.  83% 556 Team Belgium
198.  83% 555 Team Switzerland
222.  81% 549 Team UK
225.  81% 548 Team Finland
243.  79% 543 Jan Modaal (United Nations)
257.  77% 541 Team Norway
274.  77% 539 Team France
294.  75% 534 Team Australia
319.  73% 530 Team Poland
354.  69% 523 Team Canada
381.  68% 519 Team USA
385.  67% 518 Team New Zealand
544.  54% 488 Team Spain

The country teams are doing a lot better now than at the second rest day when one of them was in the bottom half of the field and the best team only beat 85% of the field. After the final day of the race, all country teams are doing better than 50% of the participants and two of them beat more than 90% of the teams in the game.

The best teams this year are Team Germany (seventh in 2003), Team Sweden (ninth in 2003) and Team The Netherlands (eleventh in 2003). Last year number one team, Team Finland, is seventh this year. The success of Team Germany occurs together with individual successes for German participants: though the country only supplies 5% of the game participants, half of the top six in the overall rankings are German citizens.

Alternative rankings

At the second rest day, we have also looked at alternative rankings, namely those that use the rankings for the four main jerseys. Here are the participants of whom the teams best reflect these rankings (see the official site).

Top ten yellow jersey rankings
 1.  67 Erik TKS (Belgium)
 2.  63 Chris Troof (USA)
     63 Laia Gurrutxaga (Spain/Basque Country)
 4.  62 Hans Baudoin (The Netherlands)
 5.  60 Martijn Bakker (The Netherlands)
 6.  59 Jaared Scott (USA)
     59 Mads Viskum (Denmark)
 8.  58 Bruno Steurs (Belgium)
     58 Jos Theune (The Netherlands)
10.  57 Garrett Zorigg (USA)
     57 Jorge Humberto Carvalho Morgado (Portugal)

Top ten green jersey rankings
 1.  92 Arthur Denneman (The Netherlands)
 2.  85 Johan van Ommen (The Netherlands)
 3.  84 Marcel Yoda (The Netherlands)
 4.  83 Jan Matheeuwwsen (The Netherlands)
     83 Robert van Lunteren (The Netherlands)
 6.  82 Barbara Hoffellner (Austria)
 7.  80 Billy Corgan (Norway)
     80 Rob Spaans (The Netherlands)
 9.  79 Erik-Jan Meles (The Netherlands)
10.  78 Reno van Dael (The Netherlands)

Top ten polka dot jersey rankings
 1.  68 A.A. Fiona-Jaffa (UK/England)
 2.  64 Chris Troof (USA)
 3.  61 Erik TKS (Belgium)
     61 Stefan Eleveld (The Netherlands)
 5.  59 Fabian Perpeet (Germany)
 6.  56 Tore Högman (Sweden)
 7.  55 Aaron Williams (Australia)
     55 Jan ter Horst (The Netherlands)
     55 Petre Caraiani (Romania)
     55 Tyler Kayaker (USA)

Top ten white jersey rankings
 1.  42 Severine Chaumette (France)
 2.  20 Richard Thomas (Canada)
 3.  19 Alex Presho (UK/England)
 4.  14 Bart Jongkind (The Netherlands)
     14 Craig Steward (Australia)
     14 Jan Kees Blom (The Netherlands)
     14 Nappy Row (Canada)
 8.  13 Bart van Kooten (Australia)
     13 John Wingfield (UK)
     13 Lars Taudahl (Denmark)
     13 Steve Martinez (USA)
     13 Zoe Smith (UK)

Interestingly enough, six of the top ten participants in the green jersey rankings have also finished in the top ten of the overall rankings. In 2003, there was no participant that managed this. Contrary to the green jersey ranking scores, the scores in the top ten of the yellow jersey rankings are lower than last year. It seems that the teams did not suffer as much from the sprinter abandonments than from the GC rider dropouts.

At the second rest day, we also looked at two rankings based on the percentile rates. First there was the list for the participants with the highest total of stage percentile rates. Here is the current top ten:

Top ten total percentile rates
 1. 1353 M. Balon (USA)
 2. 1326 Vince Del Gaudio (Canada)
 3. 1321 John Hamill (USA)
 4. 1312 Daryl Cheng (Australia)
 5. 1307 Leighton Smith (New Zealand)
 6. 1291 Chuck Guidry (USA)
 7. 1289 Ruth Wilson (UK/England)
 8. 1271 Richard Somerset (UK/England)
 9. 1270 J. Chaumette (France)
    1270 Cameron Henderson (Australia)

For this ranking it is helpful to have obtained points in stage 14, when 80% of the participants received zero points. In the first rankings, only five of the top 10 did not receive any points in stage 14: Vince Del Gaudio (Canada), John Hamill (USA), Richard Somerset (UK/England), J. Chaumette (France) and Cameron Henderson (Australia).

The second ranking concerns the minimal stage percentile rates. For this one it is essential to have obtained some points in stage 14.

Top ten lowest percentile rate
 1.  55 M. Balon (USA)
 2.  42 Scott Taylor (Canada)
 3.  42 Leighton Smith (New Zealand)
 4.  37 Ruth Wilson (UK/England)
 5.  37 Cam Atk (Australia)
 6.  37 S. Steiner (USA)
 7.  37 Peter R. Avakian (USA)
 8.  37 Marcel Hendriks (The Netherlands)
 9.  33 Sarah Martinson (USA)
10.  33 Tez Watson (UK/Scotland)
The best in both percentile rankings is M. Balon (USA), who finished 45th overall. Balon is the only participant that managed to beat more than half of the field in all stages of the game. If we would ignore stage 14, the highest minimal percentile rate would be 60% (by Jesse Roche).

The optimal team

A separate page contains information about the optimal team for the 2004 edition of the Internet Tour de France Game.

Game veterans

Since the edition of 2001, we have examined the performance of the game veterans: participants which have participated in nearly all editions of this game. The following performance overview lists the 49 people that have participated in the game eight or more times (also see the history section). The robot participant Jan Modaal has also been included in the list.

                     ## 19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004 avg.
Adrie van Geffen      8x   -   -   -   7   8  11  25  58  20  39  16  23
Arthur Denneman       9x   -   -  84  97  63  36  76  99  95  63 100  84
Benoit Rey           10x   -  85  30  62  71  28  44  90  88  74  46  70
Bojan Kozelj          8x   -   -   -  42  83  88  89  65  80  75  86  76
Bret Jaeger           9x   -   -  27  52  41  65  41  76  63  76  50  58
Brian Roth            9x   -   -  95  84  79  63  56  20  43  56  69  68
Carlos Girao          8x   -   -   -  48  55  96  66  56  17  26  69  54
Chad Lennon           8x   -  61   -  94  83  86  81  94   -  92  77  83
Christoph Kersten     8x   -   -   -  74  31  82  65  13  54  92  80  61
Daniel McQuillen      8x   -  43  44  59  83   -  87  99  99  69   -  72
David Marshall        9x   -   -   8  11  99  30  66  62  68  58  20  51
Dex Tooke             8x   -   -   -  54  31  21  66  75  71  80  48  55
Erik TKS             11x   2  46  37  44   7   0  17  24  27   8  13  27
Erix Schokker        10x   -  39  91  37  94  98  85  63  38  38  77  73
Francis Stalpers      9x   -   -  93  97  65  90  87  40  95  46  68  80
Francois Hudon        8x   -   -   -  76  92  74  95  88  98  84  77  85
Frank Koper          10x   - 100  43  98  41  83  94  67  89  35  52  78
Gerard Creemers       8x   -   -   -  97  95  94  97  56  85  85  89  87
Gosse Bouma          11x  83  78  85  67  85  72  89  81  50  59  94  83
Graeme Camp           8x   -   -   -  45  **  71  94  93  96  91  81   -
Guus van Zadelhoff   10x   -  82  45  79  64  83  80  79  81  82  86  81
Hans Dekker           8x   -   -   -  99  20  39  60  59  35  58   2  46
Harrie Wintermans     8x   -   -   -  24  81  45  58  86  72  48  10  53
Hugo Paulissen        8x   -   -   -  14  91   8  12  26   7  88  65  38
Jan Modaal           11x  63  95  81  97  55  72  69  89  89  89  79  86
Jean-Luc Bulliard     8x   -   -   -  89  67  64  96  97  94  77  95  84
Jezz Nash             8x   -   -   -  20  47  30  63  53  82  78  47  52
Jos Droste            8x   -   -   -  87  90  95  97  75  98  81  80  87
Julian Zgoda          8x   -  64  45  76  57   -  79  78  75  82   -  69
Kevin Mathers         8x   -   -   -   4   8  42  50  53  26  86  81  43
Marcel Luyckx         8x   -   -   -  49  60  74  84  77  60  91  62  69
Marcel Spanjer       10x   -   5  89  68  91  95  25  64  64  35   7  66
Mark Biggs            8x   -   -   -  70  57  28  35  16  30  24  29  36
Marko Tukic           9x   -   -  63  87  36  74  62  81  91  83  67  76
Marten de Blecourt    8x   -   -   -  63  60  82  20  78  83  78  72  67
Martin Ellfolk        8x   -   -   -  71  34  74  46  98  87  73  75  69
Matthias Kersten      8x   -   -   -  28  32  25  58  72  67  55  97  54
Michael Botzet        8x   -   -   -  78  51 100  96  91  92  88  99  86
Michael McQuillen    10x   -  76  68  78  94  90  86  98  98  72  98  89
Michael Smukler       8x   -   -   -  66  68  56  35  34  54  89  54  57
Nico Wienders        10x   -  90  63  95  23  95  84  98  89  69  39  79
Remco van Veenendaal  9x   -  85  50   -  15  49  55  98  62  32  14  55
Rien Post             9x   -   -  91  64  91  99  69  58  50  59  84  76
Robert Beernink       9x   -   -  77  93  83  93  88  30  61  88  88  83
Steve Smith           8x   -   -  52   2   4  62  60   -  69  85  69  50
Tako Molanus         11x  25  87  23  36 100  58  48  90  69  97  88  79
Tom Scanlon           8x   -   -   -  93  41  68  54  84  75  91  83  73
Wim Penninx           9x  72  97  84  32  68  67  23  74   -  76   -  71
Xander Wiardi         8x   -   -  75  35   -  23  92  53  91  90  44  62
Xavier Pons           8x   -  72  92  93  48  53  69  47  88  85   -  75

Immediately behind each participant name there is a number indicating how often the participant has taken part in the game. The other numbers are percentile rates, the percentage of the other players that obtained fewer points in that particular edition of the game. So 100 means the participant was first and 23 means that only 23% of the field obtained fewer points. The final number on each line is an average computed over the eight highest percentile rates.

The 2004 edition of the game has been an excellent one for the veterans. Arthur Denneman managed to win the game and five other veterans managed to beat more than 90% of the field: Gosse Bouma (94%), Jean-Luc Bulliard (95%), Matthias Kersten (97%), Michael Botzet (99%) and Michael McQuillen (98%). With respect to the average rate, Michael McQuillen (89%) remains the most successful participant. Gerard Creemers and Jos Droste (both at 87%) are runners-up. These three are the only ones that manage to obtain a higher average rate than the robot participant Jan Modaal (86%).

Four game veterans have managed to win an edition of the game: Arthur Denneman (2004), Frank Koper (1995), Michael Botzet (1999) and Tako Molanus (1998). With respect to positions among the best 10% of the field, Wil Gommans (not included in this list) remains the most successful participant. This year he obtained his sixth 90+ rate in seven participations. Cameron Henderson (not included in this list), Michael Botzet and Michael McQuillen have managed five positions in the top 10% of the field. Of the eleven people that have obtained four 90+ rates, Rens Jan Piket's run of four out of four deserves mentioning.


Last update: July 28, 2004. erikt@stp.ling.uu.se