Previous | Home

TdF Game; Final Remarks

Floyd Landis has won the Tour de France 2006. Last year's winner, fellow countryman Lance Armstrong, repeated his victory six more times. There are not a lot of people that believe that Landis can repeat this remarkable feat. First, Armstrong was 27 years old when he won his first Tour while Landis is three years older now. Second, Landis is due to have his right hip replaced this fall (2006) and it is unknown how he will respond to the surgery. We hope that he will be able to return to professional cycling and take part in the race next year.

Dropouts

A total of 139 riders have completed the race. This means that 37 riders have left the race. Another 13, among which Jan Ullrich and Ivan Basso, did not start the race because they were withdrawn by their team one day before the start. This brings the total amount of missing cyclists to 50 which is very close to the average of the last twelve editions of the race (54). The maximum number of riders to have abandoned the race race was 93 in 1998 and the minimum 34 last year.

The dropouts have caused problems for the participants in the game. Only one of the 647 participants has a complete team: Matthias Kersten of Germany (497th place). Sixteen teams have lost one rider and 81 lost two. Eight participants, among which former winner Etienne Gaasenbeek, have lost seven riders, the largest lost registered this year. The participants with the smallest teams are Jo Nymo Matland (Norway) and Tom Robinson, (Australia). They started the game with incomplete teams and arrive in Paris with only seven cyclists.

Popular cyclists

At the previous rest days we have compared the performance of the robot participant Jan Modaal, composed from the list of most favorite cyclists in the game, with teams that contained the most popular cyclists of the countries that provided 10 or more participants to the game. After stage 14, the average teams did less well than expected: only one of them (Team The Netherlands) would have been ranked among the best 10% of the participants in the game. Here are the overall rankings of the country teams at the end of the game:

 Plc  Per Pnt Name
  62. 90% 672 Team Belgium
  62. 90% 672 Team The Netherlands
  93. 85% 652 Team Norway
 109. 82% 640 Team Germany
 127. 80% 635 Team France
 128. 80% 634 Team Australia
 137. 78% 631 Jan Modaal (United Nations)
 211. 67% 606 Team Sweden
 219. 65% 603 Team UK
 238. 63% 595 Team USA
 240. 62% 594 Team New Zealand
 264. 59% 586 Team Canada

This list contains the projected place of the team in the overall rankings, the percentage of participants it would have beaten, its score and its name. The performances of the country teams have improved since the last rest day. At that day only one team beat 90% of the participants while one other team beat 80%. At the end of the race both Team Belgium and Team The Netherlands beat 90% of the participants while four other teams beat 80%.

Alternative rankings

Since 1999, we have used the rest days to look at several alternative rankings. We examine the current overall rankings for the four main jerseys: yellow (overall time), green (sprinter points), polka dot (mountain points) and white (best young rider). If we interpret the top ten positions of these rankings as a stage result (see CyclingNews.com), we get the following top tens of participants:

Top ten yellow jersey rankings after stage 20
 1.  69 Tore Högman (Sweden)
 2.  63 Jacqueline Blom (The Netherlands)
 3.  58 O. Vergeer (The Netherlands)
     58 Ole Olesen (Norway)
 5.  57 Jan Buiten (The Netherlands)
 6.  55 Rick Goatman (Australia)
 7.  53 Jason Bartram (Australia)
     53 Olle Olausson (Sweden)
 9.  51 Y. T. (Poland)
10.  50 Erik TKS (The Netherlands)
Top ten green jersey rankings after stage 20
 1.  74 Matthijs Otten (The Netherlands)
 2.  73 Balazs Barna (Hungary)
 3.  72 Arthur Denneman (The Netherlands)
 4.  70 Amaryllis Frieser (The Netherlands)
     70 Bevo Gallagher (USA)
     70 Dimitri van Agterveld (The Netherlands)
     70 Jack Crombag (The Netherlands)
     70 Nathalie Mulder (The Netherlands)
     70 Steve Tester (Australia)
10.  69 Arjen Pijfers (The Netherlands)
     69 Edwin Saunders (South Africa)
     69 Karolina Tobiasson (Sweden)
     69 Xiaojun Creemers (The Netherlands)
Top ten polka dot jersey rankings after stage 20
 1.  60 Tore Högman (Sweden)
 2.  58 Erik TKS (The Netherlands)
 3.  54 Richard Stephens (USA)
     54 Tatyana Molloy (USA)
 5.  53 Alexander Martin (The Netherlands)
     53 Ole Olesen (Norway)
 7.  52 Todd Pontifex (Australia)
 8.  51 Brian Gregg (USA)
 9.  49 Håkon Mørk (Norway)
10.  48 M.P. McGinley (USA)
     48 Rick Goatman (Australia)
     48 Vince Davis (USA)
Top ten white jersey rankings after stage 20
 1.  21 Hamste Panthers (Sweden)
 2.  14 Guido Van Hal (Belgium)
 3.  13 Brian Gregg (USA)
     13 Jeroen Wouda (The Netherlands)
     13 Jock McKenzie (UK/Scotland)
     13 Kim Johnstone (New Zealand)
 7.  12 Alexander Martin (The Netherlands)
     12 M.T. Zbinden (USA)
     12 Mardie Parrot (Germany)
     12 Roberto Sabadini (Italy)

In order to obtain a high position in these rankings you need to have included cyclists that are still present in the Tour. In the game, when a cyclist leaves the race, you will keep all the points he earned for you but in these rankings only the remaining cyclists can earn points for you.

When we compare the lists with those of the previous rest day, we see that the scores for the green jersey rankings have decreased while the polkadot jersey ranking scores improved. The first was caused by the fact that some top sprinters left the race in the final week (Boonen, Freire, Bennati and Hunter). The increase of the mountain rankings was caused by the additional mountain stages in the final week which allowed the expected cyclists to improve their positions in the polkadot rankings.

At the second rest day, we have also computed two additional rankings based on the percentile rates. Here is an update of the list based on the highest total percentile score:

Top ten total percentile rates
 1. 1309 Daryl Collingwood (New Zealand)
 2. 1270 Geraint Parry (USA)
 3. 1266 Steve Tester (Australia)
 4. 1261 Marc Van den Bossche (Belgium)
 5. 1253 Christoph Kersten (Germany)
 6. 1246 Arthur Denneman (The Netherlands)
 7. 1241 Tobias van den Broek (The Netherlands)
 8. 1237 Denver McMahon (USA)
 9. 1236 Jane van Niekerk (South Africa)
10. 1229 Dietmar Pauly (Germany)

The basis for this ranking is similar to that of the green jersey rankings in the Tour de France: the more often a team finishes in the top of the stage rankings, the more points it collects. Overall number 24, Daryl Collingwood, is the leader in these rankings. Winner Arthur Denneman is sixth. Here is an update of the top ten of participants with the highest minimum percentile scores:

Top eleven lowest percentile rate
 1. 40 Jane van Niekerk (South Africa)
 2. 22 Chris Church (South Africa)
 3. 17 Jack Crombag (The Netherlands)
 4. 12 Julien Le Gall (France)
 5. 10 M. Sullivan (Canada)
 6. 10 Erik Hogan (The Netherlands)
 7.  8 Akke Vellinga (Belgium)
 8.  7 Richard McCarthy (USA)
 9.  7 Regina Bryson (USA)
10.  7 Joey Mocnik (Canada)
11.  5 Darren Martin (UK/England)

The ranking of participants with the same minimal percentile rate has been based on their second-worst rate. Jane van Niekerk has beaten at least 40% of the other participants in each stage and is the clear winner in this category. She is also the only one that manages to appear in both top ten lists. The eleven participants listed here are the only ones that managed to collect points in each and every stage in the game. In 2005 only two participants accomplished this feat.

Successful participants

In the 2006 edition of the game, we have seen many excellent performances of the participants:

  • In the first stage in the game (stage 2) Bevo Gallagher and Dimitri van Agterveld set a new all time stage score: 114 points. Four more participants obtained a higher score than the previous record of Dick Blom (107) from 1999.
  • Stage 7 was won by Olle Olausson who earlier had won nineteenth stage in 2003.
  • Stage 13 was won by Dick Blom who had been successful in 1999 and 2001 as well.
  • Stage 16 was won by Erik TKS and he has already claimed victories in the game editions of 1994, 1995 and 2000.
  • Stage 17 was won by Tore Högman, already a stage winner in 2002.
  • Stage 19 was won by Maaike Kuipers and she had been successful in the game editions of 2002 and 2005.
  • Arthur Denneman won the game for a second time. He is the first participant to accomplish this. Before this edition no one had been able to repeat a top three position.
  • Arthur Denneman and Dimitri van Agterveld became the first participants to obtain a top ten position in the final overall rankings for the third time. Denneman managed top ten positions in the editions of 2001 (sixth), 2004 (first) and 2006 (first), and Van Agterveld in 1999 (fourth), 2002 (tenth) and 2006 (third).
  • Arthur Denneman's final overall score of 781 points is the highest overall score achieved in the game. Five other participants improved on the earlier record of Kees Winder from 1997 (749 points).

All point records have been broken in this edition and many participants have been able to repeat earlier successes. Congratulations!

The optimal team

The second week of the race has provided some mountain stages. However there was only one summit finish and therefore the climbers and the race favorites have not been able to achieve many top positions in the stages. Like on the previous rest day, the optimal team at this stage of the game is dominated by sprinters.

 1. R. McEwen          |  9x:   1*  1*  5   1*  4   2   6   6   2
 2. T. Boonen          |  9x:   2*  4   4   2*  3   9   4   5   8
 3. O. Freire          |  7x:   4   7   3*  1   6   1   3*
 4. E. Zabel           |  9x:   9   5   9   7   6   3   9   8   4*
 5. D. Bennati         |  7x:   5*  3   6   2   5*  8   9
 6. T. Hushovd         |  6x:   3   7   5  10  10   1
 7. B. Eisel           |  7x:   8   9  10   4   7*  7*  7*
 8. L. Paolini         |  6x:   6   6   8*  8*  8*  5
 9. A. Kloden          |  6x:   8   9*  5   5   8   2
10. C. Evans           |  5x:   4  10*  4  10*  8
11. F. Landis          |  5x:   2   3   4   1   3
12. D. Kopp            |  4x:   5   4  10   9
13. F. Ventoso         |  4x:   7   8   7   7
14. I. Isasi           |  4x:   3  10   6   9
15. C. Moreau          |  4x:  10   4   4   3

The team list contains the positions of the cyclists in the team, their names, the number of times they have appeared in the top ten until now and the positions which they have obtained in these top ten positions. An asterix behind the position indicates that the cyclist has obtained bonus points for that result. This team would have obtained 890 points, 109 points more than game winner Arthur Denneman. Here is the score sheet of the team:

                            tot  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
 1. R. McEwen               144 18  . 18 15 18  . 15 15  .  . 15 15  .  .  .  .  .  . 15
 2. T. Boonen               132 17 14 14 17 14  . 14 14  .  . 14 14  .  *
 3. O. Freire                97 13 13 16 13 13  .  . 13  .  . 16  .  .  .  .  .  *
 4. E. Zabel                110 12 12  . 12 12  . 12 12 12  . 12  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 14
 5. D. Bennati               81 13 11 11  . 11  . 13  . 11  . 11  .  .  .  *
 6. T. Hushovd               60 10  .  . 10 10  .  . 10  .  . 10  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 10
 7. B. Eisel                 69  9  .  9  9  9  . 11  .  .  .  . 11  .  .  .  .  .  . 11
 8. L. Paolini               54  8  8  .  . 10  . 10 10  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  8
 9. A. Kloden                44  .  .  .  .  .  7  .  .  .  9  .  .  .  7  7  7  .  7  .
10. C. Evans                 34  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  6  .  .  8  .  6  8  .  6  .
11. F. Landis                25  .  .  .  .  .  5  .  .  .  5  .  .  .  5  .  5  .  5  .
12. D. Kopp                  16  .  .  4  4  .  .  4  4  .  .  .  .  .  .  *
13. F. Ventoso               12  .  .  3  3  .  .  .  3  .  .  3  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .
14. I. Isasi                  8  .  .  .  2  2  .  .  .  2  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  2  .  .
15. C. Moreau                 4  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  1  .  .  1  .  1  1  .  .  .
                    Points: 890100 58 75 85 99 12 79 81 25 21 81 40  9 12 14 21  2 18 58
               Percentiles: 100 97 99 99100 99 45100 99 98 34100 96 22 27 29 54 96 45 85

The percentile scores show what percentage of the participants in the game would have finished behind this team in the overall rankings or in the stages This super team would have won four stages in the game (stages 5, 6, 8 and 12) and have obtained two second places (stages 3 and 9). These involve stages with sprint finishes as well as stages in which a small or larger group finished before the main group.

The maximum attainable score, 890 points, is not a record. The maximum possible overall score was higher in 2005 (897 points) and in 1994 (893 points).

Game veterans

Since the edition of 2001, we have examined the performance of the game veterans: participants which have participated in nearly all editions of this game. The following performance overview lists the 64 people that have participated in the game nine times or more (also see the history section). The robot participant Jan Modaal has also been included in the list.

                     ## 1994  95  96  97  98  992000  01  02  03  04  05  06 avg.
Adrie van Geffen     10x   -   -   -   7   8  11  25  58  20  39  16  59  32  27
Anton Cozijnsen       9x   -   -   -   -  95  93   -  96  86  23  28  93  97  --
Arthur Denneman      11x   -   -  84  97  63  36  76  99  95  63 100  65 100  84
Benoit Rey           12x   -  85  30  62  71  28  44  90  88  74  46  61  85  70
Bert Platt           10x   -   -   -  38  79  77  97  82  64  59  79  89  72  73
Bojan Kozelj         10x   -   -   -  42  83  88  89  65  80  75  86  49  88  74
Bret Jaeger          11x   -   -  27  52  41  65  41  76  63  76  50  83  81  62
Brian Roth            9x   -   -  95  84  79  63  56  20  43  56  69   -   -  --
Carlos Girao         10x   -   -   -  48  55  96  66  56  17  26  69  37  79  54
Chad Lennon          10x   -  61   -  94  83  86  81  94   -  92  77  79  43  79
Christoph Kersten    10x   -   -   -  74  31  82  65  13  54  92  80  62  91  64
Constant Martini     10x   -   -   -  17  81  60  26  67  98  82  12  27  60  53
David Marshall       11x   -   -   8  11  99  30  66  62  68  58  20  42  81  53
Dex Tooke            10x   -   -   -  54  31  21  66  75  71  80  48  67  20  53
Edwin Saunders        9x   -   -   -   -  37   9  83  93  76  76  23  52  94  --
Erik TKS             13x   2  46  37  44   7   0  17  24  27   8  13  11  10  23
Erix Schokker        12x   -  39  91  37  94  98  85  63  38  38  77  12  92  71
Francis Stalpers     11x   -   -  93  97  65  90  87  40  95  46  68  81  77  79
Francois Hudon       10x   -   -   -  76  92  74  95  88  98  84  77  78  80  84
Frank Koper          12x   - 100  43  98  41  83  94  67  89  35  52  71  79  77
Fred Goudbeek         9x   -   -   -   -  39  14  66  30  73  33  29  50  70  --
Gerard Creemers      10x   -   -   -  97  95  94  97  56  85  85  89  73  96  86
Gosse Bouma          12x  83  78  85  67  85  72  89  81  50  59  94   -  60  79
Graeme Camp          10x   -   -   -  45  **  71  94  93  96  91  81  76  87  --
Guus van Zadelhoff   12x   -  82  45  79  64  83  80  79  81  82  86  68  61  78
Hans Dekker           9x   -   -   -  99  20  39  60  59  35  58   2  39   -  --
Harrie Wintermans     9x   -   -   -  24  81  45  58  86  72  48  10   -  93  --
Hugo Paulissen       10x   -   -   -  14  91   8  12  26   7  88  65  49  44  40
Jan Modaal           13x  63  95  81  97  55  72  69  89  89  89  79  83  78  85
Jean-Luc Bulliard    10x   -   -   -  89  67  64  96  97  94  77  95  98  93  87
Jeroen van Koert      9x   -   -   -   -  93  90  95  93  81  66  61  91  21  --
Jezz Nash            10x   -   -   -  20  47  30  63  53  82  78  47  81  17  51
Joel Hull             9x   -   -   -   -  50  90  80  85  92  39  97  85  26  --
Jos Droste           10x   -   -   -  87  90  95  97  75  98  81  80  89  67  85
Ken Charbonneau       9x   -   -   -   -  17  98  65  61  98  70  73  67  46  --
Kevin Mathers        10x   -   -   -   4   8  42  50  53  26  86  81  23  23  39
Marcel Luyckx        10x   -   -   -  49  60  74  84  77  60  91  62  83  64  70
Marcel Spanjer       12x   -   5  89  68  91  95  25  64  64  35   7  61  43  63
Mark Biggs           10x   -   -   -  70  57  28  35  16  30  24  29  37  44  37
Marko Tukic          11x   -   -  63  87  36  74  62  81  91  83  67  85  41  73
Martin Ellfolk        9x   -   -   -  71  34  74  46  98  87  73  75  58   -  --
Matthias Kersten     10x   -   -   -  28  32  25  58  72  67  55  97  99  23  55
Michael Botzet       10x   -   -   -  78  51 100  96  91  92  88  99  97  87  87
Michael McQuillen    11x   -  76  68  78  94  90  86  98  98  72  98   -  91  88
Michael Smukler      10x   -   -   -  66  68  56  35  34  54  89  54  78  68  60
Michel Oberson        9x   -   -   -   -  66  94  93  97  83  72  42  33  83  --
Mike Ross             9x   -   -   -   -  67  68  86  99  55  47  55  56  83  --
Nico Wienders        12x   -  90  63  95  23  95  84  98  89  69  39  92  88  86
Pia Harbers           9x   -   -   -  56   8  37   -  14  59  85   2  39  71  --
Randall Cockroft      9x   -   -   -   -  96  87  42  87  84  77  58  87  65  --
Remco van Veenendaal 11x   -  85  50   -  15  49  55  98  62  32  14  56  85  58
Ria Molanus           9x   -   -   -  92  43  27  48  62   -  30  27  42  55  --
Rien Post            11x   -   -  91  64  91  99  69  58  50  59  84  17  81  74
Robert Beernink      11x   -   -  77  93  83  93  88  30  61  88  88  94  63  82
Robert van Lunteren   9x   -   -   -  53  40  91  89  72  59   -  99  94  86  --
Robin van Koert       9x   -   -   -  49  91   -  70  99  93  69  81  62   6  --
Sjoerd Stoffels       9x   -   -   -   -  66  81  89  91  88  58  76  95  58  --
Stefano Heyer         9x   -   -   -   -  98  68  98  90  86  77  83  81  69  --
Steve Smith          10x   -   -  52   2   4  62  60   -  69  85  69  68  54  52
Tako Molanus         13x  25  87  23  36 100  58  48  90  69  97  88  59  54  75
Tom Scanlon          10x   -   -   -  93  41  68  54  84  75  91  83  85  79  75
Wil Gommans           9x   -   -   -   -  93  49  99  96  91  94  95  66  97  --
Wim Penninx          11x  72  97  84  32  68  67  23  74   -  76   -  25  53  64
Xander Wiardi         9x   -   -  75  35   -  23  92  53  91  90  44  18   -  --
Xavier Pons          10x   -  72  92  93  48  53  69  47  88  85   -  86   -  73
                     ## 1994  95  96  97  98  992000  01  02  03  04  05  06 avg.

Immediately behind each participant name there is a number indicating how often the participant has taken part in the game. The other numbers are percentile rates, the percentage of the other players that obtained fewer points in that particular edition of the game. So 100 means the participant was first and 23 means that only 23% of the field obtained fewer points. The final number on each line is an average computed over the ten highest percentile rates.

The 2006 edition of the game has been an excellent one for the veterans. Arthur Denneman managed to win the game and nine other veterans managed to beat more than 90% of the field: Anton Cozijnsen (97%), Christoph Kersten (91%), Edwin Saunders (94%), Erix Schokker (92%), Gerard Creemers (96%), Harrie Wintermans (93%), Jean-Luc Bulliard (93%) Michael McQuillen (91%) and Wil Gommans (97%). With respect to the average rate, Michael McQuillen (88%) remains the most successful participant. Jean-Luc Bulliard (87%) and Michael Botzet (87%) are second while Gerard Creemers (86%) and Nico Wienders (86%) share fourth place. These five are the only ones that manage to obtain a higher average rate than the robot participant Jan Modaal (85%, Jos Droste has the same rate).

Four game veterans have managed to win an edition of the game: Arthur Denneman (2004 and 2006), Frank Koper (1995), Michael Botzet (1999) and Tako Molanus (1998). With respect to positions among the best 10% of the field, Wil Gommans remains the most successful participant. This year he obtained his seventh 90+ rate in nine participations. Cameron Henderson (not included in this list), Jean-Luc Bulliard, Michael Botzet and Michael McQuillen have managed six positions in the top 10% of the field.



Last update: July 25, 2006. erikt@xs4all.nl